Climate, Weather & Atmosphere

GS Paper: GS Paper I | Subject: Geography | Last updated: 2026-06-21

Prelims

(Key facts, data, schemes, laws, organizations — MCQ-ready points)

Monsoon Deficit at 35% amid a 'Super El Niño' Year (The Hindu, 17-06-2026)

A week past its normal arrival date the monsoon had still not reached Mumbai, pushing India's nationwide June rainfall deficit to 35% (as of Tuesday); progress stalled over Maharashtra, the Konkan coast and central India
Regional departures: northwest India +5%; but east & northeast −43%, central India −61%, southern peninsula −14%
IMD forecast: April first-stage forecast 92% of LPA; lowered to 90% at end-May with a 60% probability of a deficient year — IMD's most pessimistic pre-season call since 2015; forecasters globally warn of a likely 'Super El Niño'
Buffers: reservoir storage 30.4% of capacity in May (vs a 25.1% average in past El Niño years) — better placed than earlier deficient seasons; 150–200 districts under priority monitoring, weekly El Niño reviews, and a nudge toward cotton & pulses
History (June, El Niño years): 2015 +14%, 2023 −8% (both ended near-normal/within range), but 2009 −47% and 2014 −44% ended in drought — so June deficit alone is not decisive; deficits often arrive in July
El Niño = anomalous warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific that typically weakens the Indian southwest monsoon

What a 'Super' El Niño Means — the Science (The Hindu, 21-06-2026)

NOAA confirmed an El Niño has formed in the equatorial Pacific, with ~63% odds it strengthens into a "very strong"/"super" event by the northern winter; India's June rainfall was ~35% below normal (to 16th)
Strength scale (IMD) by how far the reference-patch Pacific sea-surface temperature exceeds its long-term average: 0.5–1°C = weak, 1–1.5° = moderate, 1.5–2° = strong, >2° = very strong; the current event could approach a record ~2.5°C. Only four events crossed 2° in the instrumental record: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16
Mechanism: the trade winds that push warm water westward toward Asia weaken → eastern Pacific warms → winds slacken further = a self-amplifying feedback loop; a warmer baseline ocean (climate change) gives recent events more heat, making them more intense
Calendar: El Niño "starts in spring, peaks in winter, weakens fast the next spring" → its monsoon-suppressing effect is felt mainly in the mid-to-late (July–Sept) season, so a weak June is not decisive
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) wildcard: a positive IOD (warm western Indian Ocean) can counter El Niño — in 1997-98, a super El Niño, India still got +2% rain because of the IOD; the IMD DG says this year's IOD won't be strong enough to offset the Niño
Historical correlation: of ~24 El Niño years since 1950, about 15 saw below-normal monsoon and ~10 tipped into "deficient" (<90% of LPA); worst droughts in El Niño years include 1972, 1982, 2009, 2015
Cyclones redistributed, not just added: El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricanes (it strengthens vertical wind shear that tears storms apart) but makes the central/eastern Pacific more favourable, raising the odds of "super typhoons" (which usually recurve toward East Asia/the Americas, not the Indian subcontinent)

Mains

(Analysis, dimensions, significance, critique, policy angles — for 10/15 mark answers)

A Deficient Monsoon — Cascading Risks (The Hindu, 17-06-2026)

Food-inflation channel: ratings agency ICRA estimates a serious farm disruption could add ~0.4 percentage points to retail food inflation — a risk the RBI has flagged; a weak/uneven monsoon hits kharif sowing, rural demand and reservoir-fed rabi prospects
Why preparedness matters more than the headline number: India's June deficit has historically not predicted the seasonal total (2015 was a strong El Niño yet +14% in June); the policy focus is therefore on crop-wise contingency plans, drought-resistant/short-duration varieties, the shift to less water-intensive cotton & pulses, and reservoir/irrigation management
UPSC angle: ENSO/El Niño–IOD and the Indian monsoon, IMD forecasting (LPA, probabilistic), monsoon's role in agriculture & inflation, drought management & crop contingency planning